As I always tell my punting protege “The Natural”: form is temporary, class is permanent. I want to illustrate this today with a betting blog on one of my favourite golfers, Ben Curtis.
Ben Curtis is probably best known for winning the 2003 Open Championship. Because it was his first win on tour, and because it was bang in the middle of Tiger’s pomp, people assumed that he was something of a one-hit wonder. To be fair, he didn’t win again on tour for some three years, but this guy is class.
For some reason, Curtis flies under the radar. It seems that, once the public decides someone is a fluke, he never is allowed to shed that title. This guy has won another three titles, including last week as he pipped The Natural’s big fancy John Huh at the Valero Texas Open. He’s also had three more top tens in majors over the years.
What I like about Ben Curtis is that he has a very high variance. His mean scores only look ok, but they have a very high standard deviation. For the non-statisticians among you, this means that he’s likely to have a very bad round, or a very good round. He’s the opposite of the steady-Eddie grinder who’s always near his 69.5 stroke average.
This is a great quality for a golfer you fancy having a big bet on. Bad rounds can’t really hurt you when you’re betting on golf. Players are typically big prices, so who cares if your guy misses the cut from time to time? What you need is a guy who, when he’s “on”, has a chance to close out.
So I was delighted to see Ben Curtis hack up last week. He hasn’t had the easiest last few years but, as I said at the start of this betting blog: form is temporary, class is permanent. In most sports, but especially in golf, the cream rises to the top. Last week was no exception.
So the next time you’re thinking of having a bet, think of Ben Curtis. Throw out the form book, and stick you money down on the class act. Your bank manager will thank you for it!